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Philippine economy faces high risks due to Delta variant, ranks 15th out of 20 in Asia-Pacific



According to Moody’s Analytics, the Philippines ranked 15th out of 20 Asia-Pacific countries with the biggest economic risk due to the continuing Delta variant of Covid-19, making the country’s economy among the most vulnerable in the region.


On Monday, August 31, Moody’s Analytics released its Relative Covid-19 Economic Risk Index, which evaluated countries in the Asia-Pacific region based on a 50% vaccination rate, 25% on new Covid-19 cases, and 25% deaths per one million people from the past seven days.


Moody's Analytics warned that "vaccine shortages and poor social distancing measures" will hurt the Philippine economy's recovery.


Moreover, they placed the Philippines above Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Malaysia, with relative economic risk in the Asia Pacific region.


They then rated the nations with the lowest vulnerability as Singapore, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, and Japan because of their high vaccination rates and effective tracking and containment of infectious individuals.


According to research arms of debt monitoring, the highly transmissible Delta strain of Covid-19 is spreading throughout the Philippines, despite longer lockdowns.


Steven Cochrane, Moody's Analytics chief economist, said that the Philippines and Indonesia would have vaccine shortages and social distancing measures that make predictions when their economies would revive more difficult.


Cochrane explained that the Philippines' recovery would be "no straight line," citing that the country's death rate had increased, and vaccination rates were poor. The number of new cases had increased despite the introduction of mobility limits.


In the second period of 2021, the Philippines' GDP rose 11.8 percent year-over-year.

He also stated that in addition to immunizing everyone in their countries, they have been able to restrict the spread of the illnesses that resulted in people getting treatment from their healthcare systems.

Fitch solutions made similar findings where the Philippines’ growth forecast for 2021 dropped from 5.3% to 4.2%.


In this context, Moody's Analytics estimated a 4% increase in the Philippines' gross domestic product (GDP) this year, which is lower than the government's reduced 4-5% growth aim.


As of August 30, Public Health Officials reported a new record-high of 22,366 Covid-19 cases in the Philippines in one day, bringing 1,976,202 total infections.


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